Costing Conflict - An early warning method to assess the impact of political violence on vital security interests

The interdepartmental working group Early Warning Early Action scans regions on potential escalation of violence or destabilization. These regional horizon-scans assess the impact of an escalation/destabilization on the National Security Interests, and the likelihood (risk). Based on these horizon-scans, the working group defines which countries are most relevant for the Netherlands and selects short- and watchlist countries. This report provides insight in how the National Security Interests can be objectively defined using a wide range of indicators. This report will be used for the horizon scanning of regions, in combination with Clingendaels' report on enhanced risk assessment