NCTV: There continues to be a realistic chance of an attack
There is a realistic chance of a terrorist attack taking place in the Netherlands. That is why the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) is maintaining the threat level at level 4 (substantial) due to, among other things, the continuing high threat associated with jihadism. Young people who are sympathetic to right-wing terrorist and jihadist views also appear to be becoming radicalised more often and more quickly online. The speed at which this is happening is concerning. The December 2024 Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands, which was published today, contains a warning that several hundred Dutch young people are estimated to be active in right-wing extremist and jihadist online environments.
The threat posed by jihadism is as high as it has ever been
The continuing high threat associated with jihadism is illustrated by the significant increase in the number of jihadist attacks and arrests in Europe in 2024. The war in Gaza is a major driver of the jihadist threat in Europe and jihadist groups like Al Qa’ida and ISIS are using the conflict in their propaganda and are inciting their supporters to perpetrate attacks in the West against ‘Christian and Jewish’ targets. On 19 September a man attacked people with a knife near the Erasmus Bridge in Rotterdam and one person died. The Public Prosecution Service suspects the perpetrator of murder and attempted murder with a terrorist motive.
The jihadist threat comes mainly from Islamic State (ISIS) and attacks continue to take place in Europe by lone wolf ISIS-inspired perpetrators. However, Europe is also home to networks of jihadists from Central Asia and the Caucasus who intend to carry out attacks in European countries. Often these networks are affiliated to Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), which is named after the province in Afghanistan in which Islamic State are most active. ISIS groups in other provinces, for example in Syria or Somalia, are also trying to instigate attacks in Europe or encourage supporters in the West to do so. In fact, there is a certain degree of coordination between these groups in the various ISIS controlled provinces and they sometimes work together to prepare an attack. It is difficult to detect plans to launch attacks because the external capacity to do so is so spread out. In addition, the attacks being instigated are often more complex than before and are aimed at causing large numbers of casualties.
Another potential European-wide threat is that posed by individuals who have been released from prison following a terrorism conviction. From next year onwards this may also become more of an issue in the Netherlands, due to the release of people with a higher threat profile than many previously released people convicted of terrorism offences.
Numerous sovereigntists arrested due to terrorist offences
For the first time in the Netherlands, 8 sovereigntists were convicted of terrorist offences. They were suspected of participating in a terrorist organisation and three of them were also suspected of planning to engage in violent confrontation with people in authority at local level and to carry out arrests. Several suspects were found to possess weapons. Sovereigntists are a prominent subgroup within the anti-institutional movement who have declared independence from the Dutch government and believe that laws and regulations do not apply to them. Even after these arrests, the small group of remaining sovereigntists is regarded as being capable of violence and therefore as still representing a threat.
Increasing number of right-wing terrorist and jihadist young people radicalised online
The rapid online radicalisation of young people is a key element of the terrorist threat. In the Netherlands there are probably several hundred young people who are active in right-wing terrorist and jihadist online environments, with some being as young as around 14 years old. The speed at which some children and young people become radicalised online is concerning. There is a real chance that these active individuals will put their money where their mouth is and commit an act of violence. Dozens of Dutch young people aged 12 to 20 have come to the attention of the police and the Public Prosecution Service for, among other things, spreading terrorist propaganda, and some also for preparing attacks. In particular, young people with jihadist sympathies find it relatively easy to establish online contact with members of ISIS who try to encourage them to leave the country or carry out an attack. This online increase in radicalisation increases the risk of terrorist violence.
New right-wing extremist groups more prepared to take action
During the past year, new groups of right-wing extremist boys and men - and some women - have been formed in the Netherlands and some of the members of these groups are supporters of terrorist ideology. They are also more prepared to take action. In other words, they not only share ideas online, but also want to meet each other in person and engage in activities. Some supporters end up engaging in racially motivated violence. With its message of white supremacy and hatred of minorities the right-wing extremist movement is undermining the democratic rule of law.
Threat level
The threat level in the Netherlands was raised from 3 to 4 in December 2023. Since then, there has been a ‘substantial’ chance of an attack. The threat level is not based on any standard measures or national recommendations. Detailed information from the Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands enables security partners (such as police, municipalities and ministries) to take measures to deal with the threat. It goes without saying that all security partners are on alert and constantly reviewing where and how any additional measures are needed. Additional security measures were also taken recently where necessary and these are never announced to the general public. The threat level is also a way of raising people’s awareness and of informing them about a potential threat.