Terrorist threat increased slightly: chance of attack in the Netherlands is real
The terrorist threat has again increased slightly in recent months, as a result of, among other things, the war in Gaza, Koran violations and the threat posed by jihadist networks. Partly for this reason, the threat level remains at 4, which means there is a real chance an attack will take place in the Netherlands. This is stated in the National Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands (DTN) June 2024, published today by the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV). Last December, the threat level was raised from level 3 (conceivable) to level 4 (substantial).
Jihadist threat remains substantial and is also developing online
Jihadism remains the main terrorist threat against the Netherlands, with followers fuelled by propaganda with images of the war in Gaza and Koran violations in the Netherlands. Over the past six months, such images have led to various (preparations for) acts of terrorist violence in the Netherlands and Europe.
Networks present in Europe also continue to pose a terrorist threat to the Netherlands and other European countries. Some networks operate autonomously, others are in contact with ISIS groups in other parts of the world. A special role is reserved for ISKP, the originally Afghan branch of ISIS. ISKP and other affiliated networks in Europe consist mainly of individuals from Central Asia. Some of them had previously joined jihadist fighting groups in Syria and Iraq.
In addition, people in the Netherlands and surrounding countries are being radicalised online, outside of the known jihadist networks. Sometimes there are very young people among them. Some of them are actually preparing to commit an attack or in the process of committing an attack, as shown by various arrests in Europe.
Potential for violence within the right-wing terrorist online environment
The Dutch right-wing extremist landscape mainly consists of groups that strive for normalisation of right-wing extremist ideas and making the ‘white race’ resilient through physical training, which also includes the so-called 'active clubs'. Such groups are still small in number and limited in size, but sometimes have a large online reach. They say that they regard violence against people as counter-productive in principle. However, the broader acceptance of their ideas can lead to increasing intolerance towards the government, minorities and political opponents. In the long term, this may have the effect of lowering the barriers when it comes to the use of force. Mutual collaboration between these types of groups appears to be increasing both nationally and internationally.
The Dutch right-wing extremist landscape mainly consists of groups that strive for normalisation of right-wing extremist ideas and making the ‘white race’ resilient through physical training, which also includes the so-called 'active clubs'. Such groups are still small in number and limited in size, but sometimes have a large online reach. They say that they regard violence against people as counter-productive in principle. However, the broader acceptance of their ideas can lead to increasing intolerance towards the government, minorities and political opponents. In the long term, this may have the effect of lowering the barriers when it comes to the use of force. Mutual collaboration between these types of groups appears to be increasing both nationally and internationally.
Small part of anti-institutional movement and ‘sovereigns’ prepared to commit violence
Propagation of the narrative about an ‘evil elite’ by the anti-institutional movement fuels distrust of democratic institutions and undermines the functioning of the democratic legal order. For a small proportion of supporters, this narrative is a prelude to intimidation and violence. Undermining the democratic legal order can also happen from within, when supporters of the ‘evil elite narrative’ work within the institutions they distrust and actively promote their ideas.
At least several tens of thousands of self-declared sovereigns form a prominent group within the Dutch anti-institutional movement. Some of them consider Dutch laws and regulations to be invalid and, for example, refuse to pay taxes. This group regularly engages in confrontations with the police, bailiffs and others acting on behalf of the government. Sometimes this is accompanied by aggression, threats and violence. A small minority of sovereigns in the Netherlands are prepared to use offensive violence against the alleged ‘evil elite’. Weapons including firearms and ammunition have been found at several self-declared sovereigns.
Left-wing extremism
Developments in relation to left-wing extremism are being monitored. These developments currently pose a limited violent extremist or terrorist threat in the Netherlands. In the future, it is conceivable that some in this group will consider violence necessary to achieve their goals. For the time being, we have seen tougher actions lately, but they mainly remain in the realm of intimidation. This includes doxing, where personal data is placed online. In addition, left-wing extremists, for example, join university-based pro-Palestine demonstrations, which in some cases were accompanied by public disorder, destruction and violence against the police.
Threat level
In December 2023, the threat level in the Netherlands was increased from 3 to 4. Since then, the chance of an attack has been ‘substantial’. There are no standard measures or national advice linked to the threat levels. The detailed information from the DTN enables security partners (such as the police, municipalities and ministries) to take measures to combat the threat. Naturally, all safety partners are staying alert and continuous assessments are being made of where and how any additional measures are required. In the past period, additional safety measures have been taken where necessary, about which no announcements are ever made. The threat level is also a way to raise public awareness of the threat and provide information about it.